Republican John McCain quickly took a hardline stand against Russia after it sent troops and tanks into the former Soviet state of Georgia. Democrat Barack Obama’s initial condemnation of Russia was tempered by a call for diplomacy and restraint on all sides.
The crisis offers opportunities and risks for both presidential candidates and their reactions could provide a window on the next commander-in-chief.
For McCain, the issue plays to what polls show is his strength: national security. But the 71-year-old ex-Navy aviator and longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee could overplay his hand if he sounds too warlike to a U.S. electorate weary of war.
For Obama, vacationing in Hawaii, the conflict provides a chance to look presidential in an evolving international crisis, striking a balance between standing up to Russian muscle-flexing while promoting the need for diplomacy. But for him there is the risk of not sounding tough enough.
Obama must have been mindful of that. His position has hardened markedly since Friday, when he told reporters on his campaign plane that both sides in the conflict should exhibit restraint.
“Now is the time for action — not just words,” he said Tuesday in a written statement. “It is past time for the Russian government to immediately sign and implement a cease-fire. Russia must halt its violation of Georgian airspace and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia, with international monitors to verify that these obligations are met.”
With that, Obama’s remarks sounded more like the stern ones issued first by McCain and then by President Bush.
Susan Rice, a top Obama foreign policy adviser, defended the call for restraint.
“It was not clear at that stage” what the actual conditions were and Obama wanted to react cautiously “rather than shooting from the hip.”
Obama’s “subsequent statements have been a reflection of events on the ground,” Rice said.
McCain has tried to portray the 47-year old Obama as lacking the experience and judgment to lead the country in a dangerous world. Obama has criticized McCain for supporting the original Iraq invasion which polls show many voters now consider a mistake.
No matter who is elected, the next U.S. president will face more tensions with Russia.
Russia’s financial clout has increased considerably since Bush took office — largely on a run-up in oil and gas prices. Yet the huge nation which once dominated the Soviet empire suffers pent-up frustration over its loss of status on the world stage.
Europe now depends on Russia for roughly one fourth of its natural gas, and tiny Georgia is an important pipeline route for transporting oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to the West.
“There’s no question the one relative strength McCain has in the polls is on national security. So every chance he gets, every way he gets, he tries to turn the conversation in that direction,” said Democratic pollster and consultant Mark Mellman.
“If anybody were paying attention, it might help McCain marginally.” But Mellman said the crisis with Russia hasn’t struck a chord yet among everyday Americans “who are absorbed with our own war, with our own economic crisis.”
Earlier this year, McCain called for expelling Moscow from the Group of Eight major industrial democracies because of Vladimir Putin’s expansion of state control over society and commerce.
McCain also has poked fun at Bush’s claim that he looked into the Russian’s eyes in 2001 and saw the soul of a good man. McCain said when he looked into Putin’s eyes he only “saw three letters: K-G-B.” The former Russian president and now prime minister, Putin is a former KGB officer.
In Erie, Pa., McCain denounced “Moscow’s path of violent aggression” and said “Russian President (Dmitry) Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin must understand the severe, long-term consequences” of their actions.
On Friday, Obama told reporters en route to Hawaii that he was getting regular updates on the violence and that it was important for the United States to work with international partners to end the conflict.
“I wholeheartedly condemn the violation of Georgia’s sovereignty. I think it is important at this point for all sides to show restraint and to stop this arms conflict. Georgia’s territorial integrity needs to be preserved and now is the time for direct talks,” he said.
Obama has been criticized by Republicans before for his willingness to meet Iranian, Cuban and other hostile leaders with no or few conditions. And his remarks about diplomacy and restraint on “all sides” raised the question of whether he failed to grasp the scope of the Russian invasion.
“The restraint-on-both-sides argument is not very smart. It’s true on one level, but it’s not the right thing to say first,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a military and foreign-policy analyst at the Brookings Institution.
At the same time, McCain’s belligerent attitude toward Russia — his proposal to boot Russia out of the Group of Eight and his harsh criticism of Putin — may have seemed mean-spirited earlier but now seem more appropriate. “I don’t think it necessarily hurts Obama, but I think McCain has been vindicated,” said O’Hanlon.
Polls suggest voters trust McCain more on international affairs. But a recent CBS News poll showed both men slipping and McCain’s large lead narrowing slightly.
In the poll, 20 percent said Obama was “very likely” to be an effective commander in chief, down 4 percentage points from last month. McCain was seen as “very likely” to be effective by 38 percent of respondents, down eight points from last month but still well ahead. The poll surveyed 906 registered voters July 31-August 5.